May Preview

Weekly Economic CommentaryIn May, market participants will be paying close attention to the Fed, employment data, French elections, and the start of an important seasonal cycle for stocks.

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I Want My GDP: Nowcast Preview For Q4 2016

Weekly Economic CommentaryWith the first (“advance”) estimate of GDP for Q4 2016 coming at the end of the week, Fed NowCast models are forecasting an average real growth of 2.5%…

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January Game Plan

footballWe will be monitoring many significant events this month, including fourth quarter earnings, Chinese New Year, and the first FOMC meeting of 2017…

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Gauging Global Growth and Bob Dylan

Weekly Economic CommentaryWe examine the economic, political, and market landscape through the lyrics of Bob Dylan, who won the Nobel Prize for Literature last week…

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Listen to the Leaders

Weekly Economic CommentaryThe LEI provides a valuable monthly guidepost regarding where we are in the economic expansion. The LEI has to turn negative on a year-overyear basis to indicate a recession, which it has not yet done. Despite the weak reading in August 2016, we do not think the LEI is signaling a recession in the near term, although global and policy risks remain…

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FOMC FAQs: All About the Dot Plots

Weekly Economic CommentaryAs the fourth of eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings of 2016 approaches later this week, the market and the Federal Reserve (Fed) again remain deeply divided over the timing and pace of Fed rate hikes…

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Consumer Check-In

Weekly Economic CommentaryThe recent surge in oil prices from the recent multiyear lows has raised concerns on the impacts for the U.S. consumer…

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Beige Book: Window on Main Street

Weekly Economic CommentaryThe latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing near its long-term trend. However…

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Too Soon for March Madness?

March MadnessAs we enter March, market participants are already looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. While the meeting isn’t until March 15 – 16, 2016, markets are already trying to…

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From Headwind to Tailwind?

PlaneAs noted in our Outlook 2016, we expect the dollar to stabilize after its large increase between mid-2014 and mid-2015…

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